Scenario planning is not a forecast. When we form a forecast, we rely on more or less events, the probability of which is determined and is quite high.
In scenario planning, we consider almost all versions of the events that occurred. Their probability is approximately the same, so it is difficult to determine one or another combination of factors as major.
Scenario planning takes into account all possible risks that may affect the result of operations. Scenarios are effective for medium and long-term planning with a high degree of uncertainty.
The first step in building a scenario is to determine the key factors that influence the formulated development vector. For the final model, it is better to select only those factors that will have the most significant impact on the final result.
The design of the scenario is done within scenario model. Often, models are built with such familiar tools as Excel. For further steps, the model can be transferred to management or other organizations, such as banks, for review. It is likely to be presented in the Excel format that helps the target recipient to independently test the calculated indicators of the models and analyze the entire business project.